Jammu & Kashmir Today Amidst A Rising India And A Sinking Pakistan
(Cartoon Credit with thanks to Neelabh Banerjee at @NeelabhToons)
(This Blog is dedicated to my TV speakers that are baffled & terrorised by the noises emitted by their TV hung up on ‘a’ wall collecting TRPs off ‘its’ own walls by, ‘Shattering & Breaking News’!)
•Definitive action in J&K is being forced on India by a politico-military bourgeois, of an imploding Nation Pakistan, desperate to retain all of its reaping fields in the country by ‘using’ a greed driven megalomaniac psyche in the US White House who is running against time to triumph and a patient unforgiving emerging superpower in China, wanting it’s tentacles to spread out to receive resources and distribute it’s finished products across the Globe through J & K, into the Arabian Sea as well as to the Western Central Asian countries.
•With Trump what he is called by detractors, a megalomaniac & in the last years of his presidency, would want to correct his beleaguered legacy in the US history for prosperity & maybe gain future business connects if not contracts along the way.
•This Pakistani ploy may make him to overlook long term State Department plans & policies with the cautions attached and go looking for a Global policy implement that would be a winner enough to etch his name in US history more positively than at present or even to get a second term, though such misadventures rarely strike a chord with voters as they might with the war industry lobbies.
•Kashmir with all its resources and connectivity between Arabian Sea to Central Asia & China, as well as from across it into central Asia, is a prime target, now both ways, that both the Western and the Eastern super powers would seek to exploit for trade if not more.
•In an antiqued manner Pakistan seems to be providing lease with communication security through these areas for aid, funds & remunerations, in an era when that has stopped making long term economic sense.
•Promised a part of the spoils, China may want to join the party if convinced that it’s movement into the Arabian Sea through Kashmir would remain unimpeded and would help it open up its BRI (Belt & Road Initiative) to better potential Westwards into the erstwhile USSR states.
•If that means getting back resources from its erstwhile areas, Russia may just acquiescence in silence without much ado to see how profitably things may go.
• To both China & Russia too, this could mean a very lucrative proposal of disrupting & getting a glimpse of the US State Department’s long-term plans & policies from their reactions, in a major way, while Trump remains on a path for personal triumph dumping longer term US security concerns.
•Pakistan Government on the verge of collapse economically, socially isolated, seen as an international pariah & threatened as an entity internally, with Sindh, Baluchistan, FATA region & Baltistan seeking separation is desperately wanting to get back into control.
• On the latest “Washington Trip” Pakistan could have ‘promised’ & ‘proposed’ ‘grand strategic plans’ with the “44000/40000 Afghanis trained & waiting” in Pakistan to do the bidding of its Army!
•A boast that no prudent US President would like to listen at least publicly and no Pakistani PM would make, leave alone accept even as a veiled allegation! So why? If ISI & Pakistani Military edits PMs utterances, it must have some matter and muscle to it.
• Now that could give lucrative short term options to the Super Powers with their own individual conditions that may just about bail Pakistan out of its present blues.
•To India it could mean fighting Pakistani backed subversives or military funded by US or China, attempting an annexation of the whole or vital parts of Kashmir to make Indian control & presence untenable.
•The first steps to counter this may have already started by India, if rumours are be read into, to include:
– Securing of J & K into manageable parts and reducing the “Kashmir Issue” to the just the propoganda it is – “Sunni Islamic Jihad” being touted by Pakistan & accepted as such by its beneficiaries across the Globe.
~This would mean separate geographically the management of Jammu, Kashmir & Ladakh separately as states or UT or a mix depending on the level of control each would need based on the threat seen in the areas. (Thus rumours of Statehood for Jammu and Central Control over Kashmir & Ladakh seem possible & within the legal framework of construction of Articles 370, 35 & 35A or others of the Constitution, that J&K politicians can cite internally).
~This would mean securing every troubled district with extra security forces.(This may explain the CRPF influx newspapers mention).
-Flooding each district with Intelligence operatives especially in Kashmir & Ladakh that may have Pakistani & Chinese agents already festering trouble.
-Creating a helpful public opinion that also explains the heavy economic packages being announced, but it remains to be seen whether these are to be given as a single tranché, in parts or separately to each of three distinct geographically parts at once or as expenses and “value shown on ground” instalments.
-Securing the LoC in the West with Pakistan and the LAC in the North & East with China (May explain extra Army troops).
-Clearing areas in PoK along the LoC of any terrorist camps that can be used to launch the Pride of Pakistan & it’s Strategic Weapon – “The 44000/40000 Trained & Primed Afghans” in singles, parts or as collectively grouped with Pakistani Regular Army as Pakistan has been doing, with different numbers in 1999, 1965, 1950s & 1947-48!
•At some stage our diplomacy will find enough traction to overcome this ongoing surcharged situation and the US State Department, EU & ASEAN Nations as well as China & Russia will begin to refocus on their over the horizon National goals, aims & plans with India to bring this sabre rattle to a lower pitch.
• However in this small interval of history Pakistan would have found a parachute to land itself out of the impending economic sanctions, some extra funds & economic package to breathe & some legitimacy in Pakistan.
• During this small window Trump would have got some headlines with some contracts or even a “Private Mercenary Army of 44000/40000 Trained & Primed Subversives Under ISI & it’s erstwhile CIA Interlocutory” to force business deals across the Globe for conglomerates his kids are to inherit, which should make good following for journalists across the Globe!
• I only hope that Imran khan has not already promised some hills of Baltistan with their minerals to the Trump conglomerates already in an attempt to buy a new long term ally in the private Corporates of US apart from all those Conglomerates that Pakistani Generals have invested into since it’s independence with the same funds Pakistan got from the US State Department! After all the Pathans don’t go visiting without expensive gifts or make empty boasts of 40000/44000 strong Armies! That should also remain focus of the economic offenses departments in Pakistan & the US. That could, even if in a smaller way, be the reason why Pakistan can never cosy up to China at least till Pakistani Army’s present and the next generation, remains ‘invested’ in the US & EU!
•To India, this becomes a good time to pan out its own long term plans to settle the J&K ‘imborglio’ once for all or at least cut it to size to reduce its potential to damage India economically, politically & cut separatists to size by taking away from them what they have been loath about the, Hindu, Buddhist as well as the Shia Muslim dominant areas, which would blow away Pakistani propoganda and take away from it the strategic bite of the J&K ‘Imborglio’ reducing it to a merely an “Islamist Issue” or “Jihad” that it has after all been claiming it to be in ‘Kashmir’ !
•This would at least overtly, cull all ‘propogandist’ logic for nefarious US/ NATO/Chinese designs in Kashmir, if any.
•India could could benefit by:
– Trifurcation of area, funds & resources.
-Reduction of J&K State ‘Kashmiri Leaders’ & make them leaders of a few ‘Districts of Kashmir’.
– Bringing in new leaders to represent Ladakh, Rajouri, Nowshera, Jammu.
-Lock, reduce & minimise separatist Kashmiris to just Kashmir, between Ladakh across Greater Himalayas & Rajauri, Jammu areas South of Lesser Himalayas, the Pir-Panjals.
-Improve security, administration, welfare and thus integrate most of J&K into India totally.
-Reduce the larger “J&K Target” to a small fraction “Kashmir” as known Internationally.
-Let the people of Kashmir districts deal with their larger than life leaders but now with diminished funds.
• Interesting turn of events to watch.
Col Dilip Sharma (Retired)
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#India #Kashmir #Ladakh #Jammu #Rajaouri #Riasi #Economy #Development
#Pakistan #Terrorism #Terrorist #Terror
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