Managed Interdependence: Rebuilding Institutions

This working paper models a twenty-year roadmap for Russia's post-authoritarian reconstruction through administrative, industrial, and civic reform. Drawing on historical transitions and comparative data from international institutions, it identifies three linked vectors: rule-of-law consolidation and bureaucratic transparency; diversification from raw-material dependence toward higher-value manufacturing and renewable energy; and civic reintegration through decentralized equity ownership. It places the proposed transformation within Eurasian balance, BRICS realignment, and G7 sanctions, and argues that sustainable sovereignty comes from informational openness and managed interdependence rather than isolation.

• The paper treats reconstruction as a sequencing problem: administrative normalization, industrial diversification, and civic reintegration have to support one another over time.
• It connects industrial policy to sovereignty by asking whether raw-material dependence, sanctions, energy systems, and ownership structures expand or narrow practical state capacity.
• The twenty-year roadmap is a policy model and scenario frame, not an enacted programme or a prediction that a single sequence will fit every post-autocratic transition.