Managed Interdependence: Industrial Policy and Governance Sequencing in Post-Autocratic Russia

This working paper models a twenty-year roadmap for Russia's post-authoritarian reconstruction through administrative, industrial, and civic reform. Drawing on historical transitions and comparative data from international institutions, it identifies three linked vectors: rule-of-law consolidation and bureaucratic transparency; diversification from raw-material dependence toward higher-value manufacturing and renewable energy; and civic reintegration through decentralized equity ownership. It places the proposed transformation within Eurasian balance, BRICS realignment, and G7 sanctions, and argues that sustainable sovereignty comes from informational openness and managed interdependence rather than isolation.

• The paper treats reconstruction as a sequencing problem: administrative normalization, industrial diversification, and civic reintegration have to support one another over time.
• It connects industrial policy to sovereignty by asking whether raw-material dependence, sanctions, energy systems, and ownership structures expand or narrow practical state capacity.
• The twenty-year roadmap is a policy model and scenario frame, not an enacted programme or a prediction that a single sequence will fit every post-autocratic transition.

This document is presented as a public reading copy connected to the Independent Observer program. Its source trail and status remain visible so readers can distinguish a working preprint from a released publication.

Within Volume II, this record links sovereignty to the institutions that make production, information, ownership, and civic participation durable. The public page uses a synopsis and SSRN link only; the source manuscript remains outside the website.

The public SSRN record listed 40 downloads and 173 abstract views in the indexed snapshot checked on 31 August 2026. The roadmap is a working model based on comparative synthesis; sanctions, industrial capacity, civic ownership, and political sequencing are context-dependent and require ongoing evidence review.